TY  - SER
AU  - Jones, Peter G.
AU  - Thornton, P.K.
TI  - Fitting a third-order markov rainfall model to interpolated climate surfaces
AV  - 62045 
KW  - Rain
KW  - Simulation models
KW  - Lluvia
KW  - Modelos de simulación
KW  - Thomson
KW  - CIAT Autor
KW  - RJ
KW  - Meteorología y climatología
KW  - Meteorology and climatology
KW  - Articles in Refereed Journals
N2  - We describe a procedure to link a third-order Markov rainfall model to interpolated monthly mean climate surfaces. Such preliminary surfaces have been constructed for Africa and Latin America and these allow a user to generate daily weather data (rainfall, temperatures and solar radiation) that can be used for purposes of system characterisation and to drive a wide variety of crop and livestock production and ecosystem models. For applications with a time resolution of a few weeks or a growing season, the surfaces described already have substantial utility. We present indicators of reliability both spatially, in map form, and as summaries of goodness of fit for the model parameters. We test the surfaces for goodness of fit for three contrasting sites in the tropics and identify refinements to improve the interpolation methodology
ER  -