Fitting a third-order markov rainfall model to interpolated climate surfaces
Jones, Peter G.
Fitting a third-order markov rainfall model to interpolated climate surfaces - 97(3):213-231
We describe a procedure to link a third-order Markov rainfall model to interpolated monthly mean climate surfaces. Such preliminary surfaces have been constructed for Africa and Latin America and these allow a user to generate daily weather data (rainfall, temperatures and solar radiation) that can be used for purposes of system characterisation and to drive a wide variety of crop and livestock production and ecosystem models. For applications with a time resolution of a few weeks or a growing season, the surfaces described already have substantial utility. We present indicators of reliability both spatially, in map form, and as summaries of goodness of fit for the model parameters. We test the surfaces for goodness of fit for three contrasting sites in the tropics and identify refinements to improve the interpolation methodology.
Rain
Simulation models
Lluvia
Modelos de simulación
Thomson CIAT Autor RJ Meteorología y climatología Meteorology and climatology Articles in Refereed Journals
62045
Fitting a third-order markov rainfall model to interpolated climate surfaces - 97(3):213-231
We describe a procedure to link a third-order Markov rainfall model to interpolated monthly mean climate surfaces. Such preliminary surfaces have been constructed for Africa and Latin America and these allow a user to generate daily weather data (rainfall, temperatures and solar radiation) that can be used for purposes of system characterisation and to drive a wide variety of crop and livestock production and ecosystem models. For applications with a time resolution of a few weeks or a growing season, the surfaces described already have substantial utility. We present indicators of reliability both spatially, in map form, and as summaries of goodness of fit for the model parameters. We test the surfaces for goodness of fit for three contrasting sites in the tropics and identify refinements to improve the interpolation methodology.
Rain
Simulation models
Lluvia
Modelos de simulación
Thomson CIAT Autor RJ Meteorología y climatología Meteorology and climatology Articles in Refereed Journals
62045