Fitting a third-order markov rainfall model to interpolated climate surfaces

By:

Jones, Peter G

Contributor(s):

Thornton, P.K

Material type: Article

ArticleLanguage: English Description: 97(3):213-231Subject(s):

LOC classification:

62045

In: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology (Netherlands)Summary: We describe a procedure to link a third-order Markov rainfall model to interpolated monthly mean climate surfaces. Such preliminary surfaces have been constructed for Africa and Latin America and these allow a user to generate daily weather data (rainfall, temperatures and solar radiation) that can be used for purposes of system characterisation and to drive a wide variety of crop and livestock production and ecosystem models. For applications with a time resolution of a few weeks or a growing season, the surfaces described already have substantial utility. We present indicators of reliability both spatially, in map form, and as summaries of goodness of fit for the model parameters. We test the surfaces for goodness of fit for three contrasting sites in the tropics and identify refinements to improve the interpolation methodology.

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Holdings
Item type	Current library	Collection	Call number	Copy number	Status	Date due	Barcode	Item holds
Journal Article	CIAT Library Document collection CINFOS	Document Collection CINFOS	62045 (Browse shelf(Opens below))	c.1	Short Loan		100032205

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We describe a procedure to link a third-order Markov rainfall model to interpolated monthly mean climate surfaces. Such preliminary surfaces have been constructed for Africa and Latin America and these allow a user to generate daily weather data (rainfall, temperatures and solar radiation) that can be used for purposes of system characterisation and to drive a wide variety of crop and livestock production and ecosystem models. For applications with a time resolution of a few weeks or a growing season, the surfaces described already have substantial utility. We present indicators of reliability both spatially, in map form, and as summaries of goodness of fit for the model parameters. We test the surfaces for goodness of fit for three contrasting sites in the tropics and identify refinements to improve the interpolation methodology. eng